ABSTRACT
Abstract: Introduction: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has caused a marked increase in all-cause deaths in the United States, mostly among adults aged 65 and older. Because younger adults have far lower infection fatality rates, less attention has been focused on the mortality burden of COVID-19 in this demographic. Methods: We performed an observational cohort study using public data from the National Center for Health Statistics at the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and CDC Wonder. We analyzed all-cause mortality among adults ages 25-44 during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Further, we compared COVID-19-related deaths in this age group during the pandemic period to all drug overdose deaths and opioid-specific overdose deaths in each of the ten Health and Human Services (HHS) regions during the corresponding period of 2018, the most recent year for which data are available. Results: As of September 6, 2020, 74,027 all-cause deaths occurred among persons ages 25-44 years during the period from March 1st to July 31st, 2020, 14,155 more than during the same period of 2019, a 23% relative increase (incident rate ratio 1.23; 95% CI 1.21-1.24), with a peak of 30% occurring in May (IRR 1.30; 95% CI 1.27-1.33). In HHS Region 2 (New York, New Jersey), HHS Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas), and HHS Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada), COVID-19 deaths exceeded 2018 unintentional opioid overdose deaths during at least one month. Combined, 2,450 COVID-19 deaths were recorded in these three regions during the pandemic period, compared to 2,445 opioid deaths during the same period of 2018. Meaning: We find that COVID-19 has likely become the leading cause of death (surpassing unintentional overdoses) among young adults aged 25-44 in some areas of the United States during substantial COVID-19 outbreaks.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Drug Overdose , DeathABSTRACT
Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic poses an existential threat to many US residential colleges: either they open their doors to students in September or they risk serious financial consequences. Objective: To define SARS-CoV-2 screening performance standards that would permit the safe return of students to campus for the Fall 2020 semester. Design: Decision and cost-effectiveness analysis linked to a compartmental epidemic model to evaluate campus screening using tests of varying frequency (daily-weekly), sensitivity (70%-99%), specificity (98%-99.7%), and cost ($10-$50/test). Reproductive numbers Rt = {1.5, 2.5, 3.5} defined three epidemic scenarios, with additional infections imported via exogenous shocks. We generally adhered to US government guidance for parameterization data. Participants: A hypothetical cohort of 5000 college-age, uninfected students. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): Cumulative tests, infections, and costs; daily isolation dormitory census; incremental cost-effectiveness; and budget impact. All measured over an 80-day, abbreviated semester. Results: With Rt = 2.5, daily screening with a 70% sensitive, 98% specific test produces 85 cumulative student infections and isolation dormitory daily census averaging 108 (88% false positives). Screening every 2 (7) days nets 135 (3662) cumulative infections and daily isolation census 66 (252) with 73% (4%) false positives. Across all scenarios, test frequency exerts more influence on outcomes than test sensitivity. Cost-effectiveness analysis selects screening every {2, 1, 7} days with a 70% sensitive test as the preferred strategy for Rt = {2.5, 3.5, 1.5}, implying a screening cost of {$470, $920, $120} per student per semester. Conclusions & Relevance: Rapid, inexpensive and frequently conducted screening (even if only 70% sensitive) would be cost-effective and produce a modest number of COVID-19 infections. While the optimal screening frequency hinges on the success of behavioral interventions to reduce the base severity of transmission (Rt), this could permit the safe return of student to campus.